What this document is
The State A / State B economic model: what the County pays under the current system and under the CSA, and what it receives — shown as separate flows.
- State A is the $79/ton gate rate, rising, with Cell V at ~$30M to extend capacity.
- State B: $14.60M Year-1 Beneficiation Fee at Phase Initial; a Circular Royalty™ of $17.52M in Year 2 growing to ~$874M gross over 30 years.
- Two independent gross transactions, reported separately; zero County capital.
St. Lucie County, Florida
Economic Impact Report
State A locks St. Lucie County into accelerating disposal costs — State B converts the same volume into a 30-year royalty return
EIR Overview
The EIR is a delta model — it quantifies the difference between State A (current system) and State B (with Carbotura). All State B values are locked in the Proposal EIR Input Block.
All State B values in this EIR are sourced exclusively from the Proposal EIR Input Block (§5 of the Proposal document). No State B values are introduced independently in this document. State A values are sourced from the Waste Study (§3 Cost Structure) and the Assumption Registry.
Decision Summary Table
Side-by-side State A vs. State B comparison across all key decision dimensions.
| Dimension | STATE A Current System | STATE B With Carbotura |
|---|---|---|
| NAICS classification | Solid waste: 562213 / 562219 | Manufacturing: 325180 / 325998 / 327992 / 331110 / 331314 / 331492 |
| RPT status | N/A | RPT confirmed — manufacturing NAICS required |
| Primary disposal pathway | St. Lucie County Sanitary Landfill (331 ac, Cell V expansion) | ACM facility — Phase Initial 400 TPD — provisional P1/P2/P3 sites |
| Disposal cost / ton | $79.00/ton Class 1 gate VERIFIED | $100.00/ton Beneficiation Fee Year 1 |
| Annual system cost (400 TPD) | $11.53M ($79 × 146,000 TPY) | $14.60M Year 1 Beneficiation Fee |
| Annual royalty return | $0 | $17.52M Year 2 (120% × $14.60M) |
| Net position Year 1 | ($11.53M) — disposal cost only | ($14.60M) — pre-royalty period |
| Net position Year 2+ | ($11.53M) and rising — no return | +$2.56M royalty surplus; +$14.00M total vs. State A |
| Landfill cell consumption | Accelerating — Cell V expansion ~$30M cost | 400 TPD diverted — Cell V life extended ESTIMATED |
| WTE/RRF pathway | None — rejected 2023 (air quality) | N/A — manufacturing classification |
| 30-year gross royalty | $0 | ~$874M Phase Initial ESTIMATED |
| Direct employment | Landfill operations only | ~100 FTE Phase Initial ESTIMATED |
| Exogenesis™ Royalty | N/A — landfill liability | St. Lucie County Sanitary Landfill — candidate (subject to Waste Characterization Study confirmation) |
| Accounting standard | US GAAP / GASB | US GAAP / GASB |
All State B values sourced from Proposal EIR Input Block (§5). Net position Year 2+ = Royalty Year 2 − Fee Year 2 ($17.52M − $14.97M) + avoided disposal ($11.53M) = +$14.08M vs. State A baseline. ESTIMATED
State A — Current System Baseline
State A is the counterfactual: current waste system operations without the Carbotura CSA. All State A values are sourced from the Waste Study and Assumption Registry.
| State A Parameter | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Primary disposal facility | St. Lucie County Sanitary Landfill, 6120 Glades Cut-Off Rd, Fort Pierce, FL | VERIFIED |
| FWDC (Class 1 gate rate) | $79.00/ton effective Feb 1, 2025 | VERIFIED |
| Annual disposal cost at 400 TPD | $11.534M ($79.00 × 146,000 TPY) | DERIVED |
| Landfill capacity status | Cell V expansion underway (~$30M); accelerated filling post-2020 | ESTIMATED |
| Rate trajectory | Rates unchanged since 1990s; $79/ton effective Feb 2025; further increase Oct 2025 | VERIFIED |
| WTE/RRF status | None present; combustion model considered and rejected in 2023 | VERIFIED |
| Collection contractors | Waste Pro (unincorporated county); FCC Environmental Services (Port St. Lucie) | VERIFIED |
| WWTP biosolids operators | FPUA; St. Lucie County Utilities; City of Port St. Lucie Utility Systems; St. Lucie West Services District | VERIFIED |
Phase Delta Analysis
The delta model quantifies the gross transition from State A to State B across all three fiscal periods. Avoided Disposal and Circular Royalty™ are shown independently per the Separate Transaction Principle.
| Year | A Disposal Cost | A Royalty Return | B Beneficiation Fee | B Circular Royalty™ | B Royalty Surplus | Net Delta A→B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($14.60M) | $0 (lag) | ($14.60M) | ($3.07M) |
| Year 2 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($14.97M) | $17.52M | +$2.55M | +$14.08M |
| Year 3 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($15.34M) | $18.11M | +$2.77M | +$14.30M |
| Year 5 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($16.12M) | $19.34M | +$3.22M | +$14.75M |
| Year 10 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($18.23M) | $22.77M | +$4.54M | +$16.07M |
| Year 20 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($23.34M) | $31.43M | +$8.09M | +$19.62M |
| Year 30 | ($11.53M) | $0 | ($29.88M) | $43.14M | +$13.26M | +$24.79M |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
Net Delta A→B = (Circular Royalty™ − Beneficiation Fee) + Avoided Disposal ($11.53M). Year 1 Delta = $0 − $14.60M + $11.53M = ($3.07M). Year 2+: Delta is positive and growing. Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ shown as gross independent items per the Separate Transaction Principle — no netting. ESTIMATED
Phase Delta Map — State A → State B
Current disposal infrastructure (State A) versus proposed ACM deployment configuration (State B). State B values sourced exclusively from the Proposal EIR Input Block.
Phase Delta Map requires a Google Maps API key.
Set GOOGLE_MAPS_API_KEY in config.js.
FWDC $79/ton · Exogenesis™ candidate
Class B biosolids · feedstock candidate
Class B biosolids · feedstock candidate
Class B biosolids · feedstock candidate
400 TPD · ~100 FTE · COD T₀+24 mo PROVISIONAL
Fiscal Period Analysis
Three mandatory fiscal periods — must be explicitly distinguished. Combining them is a FAIL condition.
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both.
At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis.
Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
Pre-Royalty Period Separation
Three fiscal periods are structurally distinct and must not be combined or averaged.
Three periods are distinct and must not be combined. Year 1 net includes only pre-royalty deficit. Year 2+ includes full royalty return. 30-year analysis must show all three periods explicitly. ESTIMATED
Implementation Requirements
| Requirement | Status | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| RPT confirmation — manufacturing NAICS classification | REQUIRED BEFORE EXECUTION | St. Lucie County / FDEP |
| Waste Characterization Study (WCS) | REQUIRED BEFORE EXECUTION | Carbotura + County |
| Site candidate assessment (P1/P2/P3) | PROVISIONAL | Carbotura |
| County Commission approval — CSA | PENDING | St. Lucie County BOCC |
| FDEP permitting — manufacturing facility | PENDING | Carbotura SPV |
| Exogenesis™ Royalty — Waste Characterization Study | CONDITIONAL | Carbotura + County |
| CSA execution | PENDING COUNTY EXECUTION | St. Lucie County BOCC |
Executive Implications
State A projects a deepening disposal cost without a royalty offset. Cell V expansion (~$30M) extends landfill life but does not change the fundamental economics. In State B, Year 2 delivers a net positive position of approximately +$14.1M vs. the State A baseline — and this gap widens every year.
The pre-royalty period (Year 1) is the single year in which State B generates a larger net outflow than State A (+$3.07M incremental cost vs. State A). From Year 2 onward, State B generates a growing positive delta. The decision cost of delay is one additional year of State A disposal cost at $11.53M — without the royalty return that begins from Month 13.
The St. Lucie County Sanitary Landfill represents an existing environmental and financial liability. The Exogenesis™ Royalty converts legacy landfill material into a structured dual-stream royalty payment — without altering the primary CSA terms. Subject to WCS outcome, this represents incremental royalty from an asset that currently generates no income.
If St. Lucie County's planning or permitting process classifies the ACM facility under solid waste NAICS codes (562212, 562213, 562219, or 562920), Carbotura will not execute the agreement. The RPT must be confirmed and documented by St. Lucie County and FDEP before commercial terms are executed. This is the primary implementation risk in the schedule.
Unresolved Data Gaps
Items that remain unresolved at this stage of the engagement. Each gap is tracked with its confidence tier and required resolution path.
Inherited Flags
Sources
State A values sourced from: stlucieco.gov/departments-and-services/solid-waste/waste-fees (FWDC gate rate, Feb 1 2025 — VERIFIED); wflx.com/2025/03/12 (landfill deficit, rate history, Cell V expansion — ESTIMATED); wptv.com/news/treasure-coast (landfill capacity and WTE rejection — VERIFIED context); fpua.com/wastewater-service/ (FPUA WWTP — VERIFIED). State B values sourced exclusively from Proposal EIR Input Block (§5 of the CSA Proposal document, May 2026). Employment and TPD projections from Carbotura standard manufacturing parameters — ESTIMATED. All figures USD. Accounting standard: US GAAP / GASB. Verification date: May 2026.